Not mentioning the ones already released we have coming:

EQ2
SWG
Horizons
Warhammer
WoW
Middle Earth Online
D&D Online
Matrix Online
(insert the ones I missed)

What do you think the sub rate has to be on one these games to keep it profitable, and do you think it will cause a reduction in monthly fees due to competition?

Fact is that 80% of those games are going to suck, and only three or four will stay really noticeable. Right now we already have UO, AO, DAoC, EQ, AC, AC2, Earth and Beyond, Shadowbane, Planetside and probably a few others I've missed. I foresee only one or two really big subscription bases, and the rest will just limp along.

EQ will stay big. EQ2 will probably be big simply because it's EQ.

WoW will be big because it's Blizzard and it's *not* EQ :)

The others are going to have a really tough time.

However, look at the monthly cost of running one of these games. The smaller the fan base, the fewer servers you need. Set your monthly fee at a point where 1000 people or so pay for the monthly expenses of 1 server and you should do ok. Then if you only get 3000 people playing your game you only need a certain number of servers, but if 500,000 people play, you can grow your server farm accordingly :)

I've been looking forward to Horizons for a long time - glad to see they are finally getting close to release. My main reason is that players get to choose dragon as a playable race :)

There's lots of room for new MMOG's. The only shock some of them are going to find is that their dev costs are a long time in the recouping.

But... there's no real time limit. Games like <a href="http://www.realmserver.com/support/download.shtml" target="top">The Realm</a> are still going via subscription (it's fun too!) and have a very loyal fan base.

Tia

Best guestimates are that you need about 50,000 subscribers to be break even and probably around 70,000 to recover your costs over a sensible time period, which means there is a whole heap of games that are going to fail and very few that are currently profitable. Having said that, once you get over break even, in theory a high proportion of revenue should fall to the bottom line. DAoC, EQ, UO are probably currently making good returns but I guess a lot of the cash generated from these games is going into new development of next generation stuff and costs are rising. Rumours I have heard are that the costs of SWG have escalated way beyond the $10m budget.

Here is how some of them compair:

pw1.netcom.com/~sirbruce/...tions.html (http://pw1.netcom.com/~sirbruce/Subscriptions.html)

I'll be playing the one best one, or if none of them are that great I might finally give up on mmorpging. It is kind of a waste of time, you become too familar with the game world, its more or less a big time sink, etc.

Currently I'm playing EQ1 and Anarchy online. Both are pretty damn mediocre and I more or less play one or the other when I'm bored to death of the opposite one.

I go to the store and check out the single player PC games, but they all pretty much suck as well. I think I need to buy a PS2 or something, I like the rpg style of games on it, or perhaps it and an xbox.

I think it will end up being between World of Warcraft and EQ2 for me. Really I should quit mmorpgs and get stuff done in life until one of those is out ;) Instead though, I'll get bored and find myself in EQ in the same old dumb zones doing the same old dumb stuff, because its always the same, has been the same for four years and always will be the same except for new zones they add which will also always be the same so you'll be tired of them in a month.

Two things really will seal my choice:

Best or most random.

One could be the "best", but if it is like EQ1 and very static
I'll view it as a waste of time before I even start. I'd prefer
one that possibly wasn't as good but always automatically
changing via randomizers in the game. SWG sounds like it is the one doing this the most.

I'm happy to see the differences between them myself.

A few will have scripted areas that will be just for your group. This should add some great parts of single rpgs but with a mmorpg twist to it. I LOVE the idea myself!

Planetscape doesn't seem to be anything like any other mmolg. I like the newer side of it.

There are also some smaller ones coming out.

but mmorpgs make it by getting repeat customers. I'm curious if any will make it with mediocer sales, and a smaller group of customers. They might not cover the full development cost, but after its going, they might make enought not to shut to doors.

I'm hoping some of these will give more control to the customers one world setup and such. like allowing customers to be able to create quests and set themselfs up as GM's. I think this would be huge! Allow for a way to rate someone as a GM... and when grouped, you can have a GM search you out, or the other way around and you can read how others rated him (make sure he doesn't spawn a uber dragon on you just for fun). Then make the GMs gain xp of some nature also... So allow them to start higher level adventures... and giving out higher level items as rewards.

I'm hoping that others will get rid of camping... making someone who adventures... not just pulling in a new zone, but walking in the zone itself running around... gets the best advancement. Someplace where going through a dungeon means going through the dungeon... end to end... until you get over your head... and you have to run out with your tail between your legs.

I'm hoping for one that being a casual gamer is fun...

I'm hoping that there will be a game where killing the same monster over and over again will not be the best way to go.... When you see what they can do for characters in SWG... if they did the same things with monsters... and they each not only looked different, but acted different... that would be sweet!

I'm sure I could keep adding to this...

the trouble is I don't think any of these are going to meet all my hopes... but many will add parts... or expand what I hope for..

I think you'll see there are alot more MMORPGs in production than this, just not much mention of then. Don't forget games like Linage 2, Final Fantasy XI

<blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>I've been looking forward to Horizons for a long time - glad to see they are finally getting close to release. My main reason is that players get to choose dragon as a playable race [/quote]
I've been waiting so long I can't remember when I started to look at it. Personally I wouldn't play a dragon for the very sake that everyone would want to be one, I think they'll have many a reason to discourage everyone from jumping into a dragon avatar. I was looking forward to playing a vampire, but since the storyline has the living races vs. the undead horde I now have a feeling vampires will not be a playable race.

The thing that Horizons appeals to me the most is that the player base actually has a goal and a purpose that they all must combine together to accomplish. If the players don't band together in this common goal, they will fail. This just seems to add more to the game then going out killing stuff just to improve your own avatar.

Planetside is a MMOFPS before it is a MMORPG.

I can't see one person playing more than two MMORPGs at a time. More than that, and they are in desperate need of some sun.

Of course, many MMORPGs will survive the market. Even sucky ones have a following. They aren't all that expensive to run, so you don't need to have all that many subscribers to sustain yourself and make a little bit of cash. Of course, those are the games that WE won't enjoy, having been spoiled on Everquest for 4+ years.