I couldn't find a thread that related directly to the Avian Flu so I figured I would start one. If one is started and I missed it, I apologize. Reading the article below is almost unimaginable. It's almost like reading a chapter out of a science fiction novel. I'm just hoping we can get this thing under wraps before millions upon millions of lives are lost.

I heard one radio station saying that if the pandemic hits it may halt all delivery services..period! They said each city would have to be run as their own independent state. I can already imagine the amount of chaos this would cause. When I saw the movie "Outbreak" I couldn't get over how terrible it would be if something like that were to ever happen. It looks like we may soon find out.

Does anyone know if there are any statistics on the probability of this actually becoming a pandemic? I'm sure it's hard to figure exact odds, but are experts able to at least say it's more probable than not, or vice versa?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20051012/bs_ibd_ibd/20051012feature

Alwind

Here's a good article about it. (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8124-1705222,00.html)

Looks like it might be mutating to make human to human infection possible, but with that mutation some believe the mortality rate will drop from 50% to 30%.

I think some experts are saying it is a matter of 'when' not 'if'. The medical experts have to stress the worst case scenarios usually to get governments to act in preparation, but this does seem a real threat. I think they've also decided that Spanish flu was a type of bird flu and that was certainly a deadly global epidemic.

I saw the movie Outbreak and I couldn't get over how terrible it was, the movie that is.

Alwind, why is your last name a type of ant? :D

Makes sense that we WILL be faced with another flu pandemic since they come around every century or so. After seeing how the government can't deal with things like hurricanes, its a little alarming to think how'd they would cope with a huge flu pandemic.

In this day and age, it is likely to spread faster than ever given how much we travel.

30% is still a whole lot of dead people. :p

30% of those it SPREADS to. Keeping in mind that human to human spread will be hundreds of times more than chicken dust to human. 50% of a few is still a few. 30% of a lot is a LOT. :(

Alwind, why is your last name a type of ant? :D

Makes sense that we WILL be faced with another flu pandemic since they come around every century or so. After seeing how the government can't deal with things like hurricanes, its a little alarming to think how'd they would cope with a huge flu pandemic.

In this day and age, it is likely to spread faster than ever given how much we travel.

30% is still a whole lot of dead people. :p

Yup. If you look at the numbers you could actually start to worry if the experts are not too cautious.

Until now the deadly strain has shown to kill about half it infects. Given that on any average year the flu infects about half the population, you are looking at potentially one and a half billion dead, not the worst case hundred fifty million the experts warn about when nothing is done.

Of course nobody knows how deadly the new strain really is since all they can see is the confirmed cases that made it to hospitals or occured in farms where an outbreak was known. Since the majority of those outbreaks happened in rural south-east asia it is difficult to tell how many cases were simply not detected.
Sars gave us an indication how incredibly quickly a flu-like disease can spread across the globe. Of course it also showed how quickly a vaccin can be developed if all the resources of the world are bent to that task. Still, I think there is reason to worry.


Eri

You know, they found the source of the SARS virus... bats, of all things.

I heard some discussion that the avian flu infected a pig and mutated to effect humans.

This flu could be a big killer. No one really knows how bad this could be.

There's a dog flu now too. :(

Alwind, why is your last name a type of ant? :D

I saw a special on those damn Siafu like six years ago and I remember they were named Siafu by the Swahili. They said the name meant determined and relentless. The way those ants worked in such an orchestrated way was very interesting. They said it would be comparative to the state of California all operating together to achieve one goal. I can't fathom how disciplined they must be to achieve what they can achieve. That's been my nickname for about four years or so.

On a side note, not that anyone cares. I went to the Secretary of State here in Michigan to try and get a vanity plate of SIAFU. The State sent me back a letter saying that I couldn't get the plate because it may be considered offensive by others. I'm assuming it's because it ends in FU. I'm still working on fighting it.

Alwind.

And yet, there is a michigan plate out there which says CORNRAPE.

(there's a long story behind that plate, evidently, but its supposed be abbr. Corner Ape)

You sure it's CORNRAPE? Michigan plates are limited to seven characters made up of letters and/or numbers. You can get a front license plate of whatever you want but the back plate has limitations. I know some states require you to have a front plate but Michigan does not.

Alwind.

Bird Flu is a scar tactic.. yeah its affecting birds... but its barely scratching europe.. and in undeveloped countries at that. There is an EASY way to prevent the spread of birdflu, and this is straight from a doctor. Wash your hands.

Bush already said he would use the military to quarantine parts of the country to stop the spread... and I find myself asking " to what end? " Dowe just line up and shoot the infected people if they are outside the quarantine zone? Sounds awful Hitler-ish to me.

And yes.. I have a hard-on for poking holes in the current administration =p

You sure it's CORNRAPE? Michigan plates are limited to seven characters made up of letters and/or numbers. You can get a front license plate of whatever you want but the back plate has limitations. I know some states require you to have a front plate but Michigan does not.

Alwind.

Maybe it was an Ohio plate, it gets confusing up here in Toledo hehe

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051015/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_us_2;_ylt=AqPvV7M6VxGTwRFf5IXsIWSTvyIi;_y lu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

An interesting article, at least. Glad we don't travel on busses with chickens, but a great deal of the world does.

Bird Flu is a scar tactic.. yeah its affecting birds... but its barely scratching europe.. and in undeveloped countries at that. There is an EASY way to prevent the spread of birdflu, and this is straight from a doctor. Wash your hands.

Right now the avian influenza virus is almost exclusive only infectious to various species of birds. However, the influenza virus is known to be rather mutable and will often exchange genetic material with other strains of the same virus. It is why we have influenze every year and we never will gain immunity (most other diseases if you survive them, will leave you largely immune in the future after all). On the other hand, since we are so frequently exposed to the virus we have a significant base resistance to human strains of the influenza virus.
What is having everybody worried is for the avian flue to cross with the human flue and end up with a variety that is every bit as contagious as human flue (being airborne transmissible) and as unfamiliar (read lethal) to our immune system as bird flue. The last time it happened we ended up with a pandemic that killed more people world-wide than the entirity of world war 1. Given that it is even easier for the virus to spread than it was 90 years ago (despite occuring at the end of world war 1), the potential of a lot of deaths is quite big. Already a strain has developed that can infect humans, though so far it has not been seen to jump directly from human to human (i.e. it still needs an avian intermediate to spread), but the more humans are exposed to it, the sooner a cross will appear that acts just like normal human flue, and infects just as quickly and thoroughly. Only this time with a fatality rate of up to fifty percent.
So, even if currently the chance of getting infected is not all that great, every time a human is infected by both strains of the influenze virus at the same time is a possibility of the virus to make that last leap and unleash a world-wide pandemic. Health organisations are justifiably worried about this possibility, and preparations for the possibility are a very good idea. Just think how many of your friends and collegues every year get the flue, and imagine over half of them dieing from it. Washing your hands is not going to prevent you from catching the flue, it is too contagious for that unfortunately.

Bush already said he would use the military to quarantine parts of the country to stop the spread... and I find myself asking " to what end? " Dowe just line up and shoot the infected people if they are outside the quarantine zone? Sounds awful Hitler-ish to me.

Not hitlerish. Think lepers, or the black death. However, you are quite right that it is pointless to call in the military on this one because it is not a localised disease where quarantaine will help. It might work for an ebola outbreak, perhaps, but even that is debatable.

And yes.. I have a hard-on for poking holes in the current administration =p

*wryly* I do not, but that is no small part a biological limitation.
I did read an interesting analogy that I felt described the Bush administration fairly well though. He is like a man hitting with a stick at a swarm of wasps, shouting "I will not be intimidated"
As an outsider I see a president who in every crisis flounders until his speech writers and spin doctors can get their act together and tell him what to say and do to look good. When caught unprepared and forced to act he says stupid things and acts like he has no clue how to respond.


Eri

Well, no, the Avian flu has killed quite a few people, but they're all working with chickens and the like. Yes, it does exchange genes with people who have other sorts of flu.. somehow.

I heard an NPR story on how it is spreading from Asian now to Eastern Europe (i.e. Turkey and Romania). It's being spread by migratory birds. They found something like 1,000 geese that were infected and were reeling around like drunks at some lake and they were all dead the next day.

The problem is preventing it from getting from migratory birds to domestic ones. But lots of the world has their domestic birds outside.

Well, no, the Avian flu has killed quite a few people, but they're all working with chickens and the like. Yes, it does exchange genes with people who have other sorts of flu.. somehow.

I heard an NPR story on how it is spreading from Asian now to Eastern Europe (i.e. Turkey and Romania). It's being spread by migratory birds. They found something like 1,000 geese that were infected and were reeling around like drunks at some lake and they were all dead the next day.

The problem is preventing it from getting from migratory birds to domestic ones. But lots of the world has their domestic birds outside.

Which is why the Dutch government made it mandatory to house domestic birds inside for the duration of the bird migration season. The rest of the european governments thought that quite excessive but stopped short of ordering them to stop it. They probably do not feel it quite that excessive now though...


Eri

The rest of the European governments can order the Dutch government to change its internal policies?

It's being spread by migratory birds.

No worries here in the good ol' US of A. Bush will simply use the military to quarantine the migratory birds! *nods knowingly*

"Incoming swallow! Ten o'clock!!!"
"Scramble Scramble Scramble!"

For some reason this strikes me as funny. I believe I'm sleep deprived today, so that might explain it.

What is having everybody worried is for the avian flue to cross with the human flue and end up with a variety that is every bit as contagious as human flue (being airborne transmissible) and as unfamiliar (read lethal) to our immune system as bird flue. The last time it happened we ended up with a pandemic that killed more people world-wide than the entirity of world war 1. Given that it is even easier for the virus to spread than it was 90 years ago (despite occuring at the end of world war 1), the potential of a lot of deaths is quite big.
Eri

Translation, spanish flu.
http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/

Read up, that is what everyone is worried about.

Translation, spanish flu.
http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/

Read up, that is what everyone is worried about.

Yup, notice that it coincided with the global war. Geographical limitations were overcome(for the disease). Lot's of people moving all over the world at one time.

As they are now.

Travel.

Do you know that the Chinese use thermography of travelers to see if they have fever? Do you know that the Chinese routinely use huge UV lights to sterilize large open areas?

The rest of the European governments can order the Dutch government to change its internal policies?

They can if the Dutch internal policies affect the trade of other EC countries. But everybody decided not to put that to the test. The Dutch compromised by putting a definite end to the mandatory stabling of all birds unless there was a pressing reason before november 1st to continue, and the other EC countries decided not to push the issue as long as the Dutch did not insist on blocking traffic through the Netherlands completely.

Of course then they found the most human lethal strain in Turkey, quite a bit further west where the experts of the other EC countries said the virus could migrate and the Dutch policy suddenly became a lot more sensible. It is now officially allowed for all EC countries to impose that, though it is not yet mandatory. That will probably happen when the virus spreads even further west.


Eri

No worries here in the good ol' US of A. Bush will simply use the military to quarantine the migratory birds! *nods knowingly*

"Incoming swallow! Ten o'clock!!!"
"Scramble Scramble Scramble!"

For some reason this strikes me as funny. I believe I'm sleep deprived today, so that might explain it.

No, no, I think its funny too. In fact, when they first started speaking of a quarentine I wondered how they were going to get the bird to comply. :D

Speaking of birds, domestic ones, I have, for the first time in my life gotten ROTTEN EGGS out of a couple of carton of eggs. This morning I decided they had bird flu. :D

Speaking of birds, domestic ones, I have, for the first time in my life gotten ROTTEN EGGS out of a couple of carton of eggs. This morning I decided they had bird flu. :DLet us know how you treat your flu so that we can follow suit. ;)

ps... always check the expiration date before eating eggs :p

These eggs are AA grade eggs, means they're less than a week old. They're not due to expire until Nov 5th! I'm going to have a chat with my Trader Joe's. This brand of eggs is very dubious.

I made up this stuff I call Lemon Curd, sort of like a stirred custard that is insanely lemon. Anyway, I had one batch that refused to get a pudding like texture. I couldn't figure out why. I bet I had a rotten egg in it. EWWWWW!

BirdFlu:

"...and this deplete the excess population." - Dickens
Yes that was mean and not entirely seriously reflecting my opinion.


Saifu plate:

Since it is Swahili, play the language and discrimination card.

Cornrape plate:

I don't really want to know what you people in the midwest do with your corn. So long as you don't try to sell it to the rest of us afterward.